新兴产业国际贸易条件变动趋势及影响因素研究——基于高端和传统装备制造业的比较
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国家自然科学基金项目(71473276)


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    摘要:

    基于2007—2015年高端装备制造业与传统装备制造业的数据对比,建立ISIC Rev.4与SITC Rev.4行业对照表,采用双层CES函数形式的价格指数分析新兴产业国际贸易条件的变动趋势,同时运用熵权灰色关联分析法分析汇率、经济增长、直接投资和市场需求变化四个影响因素与新兴产业及传统产业价格贸易条件、收入贸易条件之间的密切程度。研究结果表明:新兴产业价格贸易条件波动幅度较大,且其恶化趋势相对于传统产业更为严重;与传统产业相比,FDI和市场需求对新兴产业的影响程度更为显著;汇率与新兴产业及传统产业的价格贸易条件之间的关系非常密切,但对新兴产业价格贸易条件的影响更大。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data comparison between the high-end equipment manufacturing industry and the traditional equipment manufacturing industry from 2007 to 2015, the paper establishes ISIC Rev.4 and SITC Rev.4 industry comparison table, and applies the double-layer CES function price index to estimate the fluctuation trend of international terms-of-trade. At the same time, based on Entropy Weight and Gray Relational Analysis, this paper analyses the relationship between the four factors (exchange rate, economic growth, FDI and market demand change etc.) and price & income of terms of trade for emerging industry and traditional industry. The results show that price terms-of-trade of emerging industry fluctuates greatly, and the trend of deterioration is more serious than that of traditional industries. Whats more, compared with traditional industries, FDI and market demand have more significant impact on emerging industries. Finally, exchange rate is very close to price of terms-of-trade both of emerging industry and traditional industries , but it has a greater impact on the terms-of-trade of emerging industries.

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熊勇清,胡娟.新兴产业国际贸易条件变动趋势及影响因素研究——基于高端和传统装备制造业的比较[J].南京审计大学学报,2017,(3):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-05-24
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