中国城镇化进程对房地产价格影响的实证分析
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    摘要:

    使用城镇化率、流动人口占比、城镇居民人均总收入和房屋竣工面积4个变量指标来反映我国城镇化进程,运用随机效应面板数据模型,对比分析2005—2013年全国、较发达省份和发展中省份的城镇化进程对房地产价格的影响。实证研究表明:城镇化率提高、流动人口占比增加,对房价的影响实际非常有限;城镇居民人均总收入水平的增加才是引起房价上涨的最重要因素;房屋竣工面积的扩大则引起房价的下跌。区域对比研究还发现,由于城镇化进程不同,相比较发达省份,发展中省份的外来务工人员产生了更有效的住房需求。

    Abstract:

    The 4 indicators of urbanization rate, the proportion of floating population, the per capita income of urban households and the floor space of houses completed are used as proxy of the urbanization process. Using random effect panel data model, this paper makes a comparative analysis of the impact of process of urbanization on the real estate price in the whole of China, the developed provinces and the less developed provinces from 2005 to 2013. The empirical analysis finds that the increasing urbanization ratio and the proportion of floating population have an actual limited impact on housing prices; the increase of per capita income of urban households, obviously drives the urban housing price up; while the expansion of the completed housing areas causes the decline in price. The comparative regional analysis also finds that the different processes of urbanization has generated more effective real housing demand for the migrant labors in the developed provinces and developing provinces.

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黄燕.中国城镇化进程对房地产价格影响的实证分析[J].南京审计大学学报,2016,13(6):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2016-11-04
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