企业战略差异度会影响分析师盈余预测吗?
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江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2016SJB630051);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目


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    摘要:

    随着我国资本市场的发展,证券分析师的作用日益凸显,关于分析师盈余预测的研究一直是各界关注的重点。采用我国沪深两市A股上市公司2011—2015年分析师盈余预测数据,检验了企业战略差异度对分析师盈余预测精度和分析师跟踪偏好的影响。实证结果表明:(1)企业战略差异度越大,分析师盈余预测准确度越低;(2)企业战略差异度越大,分析师盈余预测分歧度越大;(3)企业战略差异度越大,分析师跟踪人数越少。进一步研究还发现:国有产权会削弱战略差异度对分析师盈余预测准确度和跟踪人数的不利影响。

    Abstract:

    With the development of Chinese capital market, the role of financial analysts has become increasingly prominent. All the industries are always keeping focus on research of analysts earnings forecast. By using the data of analysts earnings forecast of A share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2011 to 2015, the paper examines the impact of corporate strategic deviance on the accuracy of analysts earnings forecast and tracking preferences of analysts. The empirical results show that: (1) Greater deviance of corporate strategy means less accuracy of the analysts earnings forecast; (2) Firms with more strategic deviance have more dispersion among individual analyst earnings forecast; (3) There are fewer number of analysts tracking as more strategic deviance exists. Further research finds that state ownership weakens the negative effect of strategic deviance on the accuracy of the analysts earnings forecast and the number of trackers.

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鄢志娟a,王姗b.企业战略差异度会影响分析师盈余预测吗?[J].南京审计大学学报,2019,(1):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-01-14
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