国际金融风险因素与中国对东盟直接投资的区位选择
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云南大学发展研究院研究生科研创新项目(YJS201701)


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    摘要:

    从汇率、利率、通货膨胀率、金融业基础设施四个角度,构建模型讨论金融风险与中国对东盟直接投资区位选择的相关关系,得出结论:东盟汇率变动、利率变动和通货膨胀率变动与中国对其直接投资量的变动都呈负相关关系,东盟金融市场中汇率提高、利率升高和通货膨胀率增加均会导致中国对其直接投资量的降低;金融业基础设施与中国对东盟直接投资的关系存在不确定性,静态面板中两者呈正相关关系,动态面板中两者呈负相关关系,说明不管金融业基础设施建设是否完善,中国对其直接投资的热度不减。最后结合中国与东盟宏观经济发展现状,提出推进人民币国际化进程、避免国际结算风险的政策建议。

    Abstract:

    From the four aspects of international financial risk into four angles: exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate and financial infrastructure, this paper constructs a model to discuss the relationship between financial risk and the location selection of China’s direct investment in ASEAN. The following conclusions are obtained. The changes of ASEAN exchange rate, interest rate, and inflation rate are negatively correlated with the changes of China’s direct investment in ASEAN. The increase of exchange rate, interest rate and inflation rate in ASEAN financial market will lead to the decrease of China’s direct investment. However, the relationship between financial infrastructure and China’s direct investment in ASEAN is uncertain. There is a positive correlation between them in the static panel model and a negative correlation between them in the dynamic panel model, which shows that no matter whether the financial infrastructure is perfect or not, China’s direct investment in ASEAN will be not diminished. Based on the current situation of China ASEAN macroeconomic development and the promotion of the internationalization of RMB,some proposals are put forward to and avoid the risk of international settlement.

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王贞力,林建宇.国际金融风险因素与中国对东盟直接投资的区位选择[J].南京审计大学学报,2019,(1):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-01-14
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