前景理论与年金之谜——基于年金购买意愿判别准则视角
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    摘要:

    随着中国进入老龄化社会,养老压力逐步加大。年金作为养老体系的重要支柱,其预期需求也应加大,但现实年金购买量远小于预期,产生了年金之谜。利用行为经济学对年金之谜进行分析,基于累积前景理论的年金价值离散时间模型,建立了投资者是否愿意购买年金的判别准则;利用光滑前景理论,构造了年金行为价值的连续时间模型,也建立了年金购买意愿的判别准则。数值模拟和实证结果发现:损失厌恶是投资者放弃购买年金的主要原因,概率扭曲进一步使得年金失去吸引力,风险态度也影响年金价值。

    Abstract:

    With China entering an aging society, the pressure of elderly caring is gradually increasing. As an important pillar of the pension system, the expected demand of annuity should be large, but the actual purchase amount of annuity is far less than expected, which leads to the annuity puzzle. With the help of behavioral economics, this paper analyzes the annuity puzzle. Based on cumulative prospect theory, this paper establishes the criterion of whether investors are willing to buy annuity under discrete time model. Besides, based on the smooth prospect theory, not only the continuous time model of annuity value is constructed, but also the criterion of annuity purchase intention is also established. Numerical simulation and empirical results show that loss aversion is the main reason for the undesirability of annuity, probability distortion further makes annuities unattractive, and risk attitude also affects the value of annuity.

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刘广应,刘美尧,向静,张立文.前景理论与年金之谜——基于年金购买意愿判别准则视角[J].南京审计大学学报,2020,(4):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-09-01
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