Abstract:Economic leverage plays an important role in the relationship between real estate prices and financial stability. Based on the panel data of 44 countries and regions from 1997 to 2017, this paper synthesizes comprehensive indicators of financial systemic risk and constructs a threshold vector auto-regressive model to test the nonlinear impact of real estate prices on financial systemic risk. The results show that housing prices have a threshold effect on financial systemic risks.Under low leverage, rising housing prices are conducive to financial stability; under medium leverage, rising housing prices promote risk accumulation; under high leverage, rising housing prices accelerate financial systemic risks. And the robustness test results are consistent. At present, China's economic leverage is in the range of shifting from medium leverage to high leverage, and some regions have stepped into the high leverage region. Therefore, at the current stage of economic slowdown affected by the epidemic, we should adhere to the principle of “housing without speculation” and do not slacken the regulation of housing prices and leverage.