全国社会保障基金的风格资产配置研究——基于经济周期视角
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    摘要:

    根据美林证券的投资时钟理论,结合我国宏观经济的月度指标,将我国宏观经济状态划分为四个阶段,同时将全国社会保障基金的投资细分为10个类别的风格资产,基于经济周期视角对这10类风格资产的收益率状况进行分析,结果表明:在复苏阶段,股票资产的收益率最高,并且不同风格股票在收益率方面的差异不大,表现出齐涨的态势;在过热阶段,不同风格股票在收益率方面表现出较大的差异,小盘股的收益率表现最好,尤其是小盘成长股的收益率最高;在滞胀阶段,最安全的资产应该是现金资产,倘若考虑到通货膨胀率的因素,其实际收益率甚至为负;在衰退阶段,债券类资产的表现最好。同时,基于不同策略的资产配置方案的累计收益率比较结果表明:不同经济周期下的资产配置方案可以显著提高资产组合收益率。

    Abstract:

    According to Merrill Lynch’s investment clock theory as well as monthly macroeconomic indicators, the economic cycle is divided into four phases and the national social security fund portfolio assets is divided into ten categories of assets. Based on the perspective of the economic cycle, this paper makes an analysis on the returns of ten categories of style assets. The results show that in the phase of recovery, the return rate on equity assets is the highest, and different styles of stock in terms of return rate have similar performance, showing a rising trend. In the phase of overheat, different styles of stock in terms of return rate have different performance, small-cap stocks, esp. small-cap growth stocks has the best yielding. In the phase of stagflation, the safest assets should be cash assets, if taking the inflation rate into account, the actual rate of return is even negative; in a recession, bond asset has the best performance. At the same time, this paper makes a comparison on the cumulative return rate of asset allocation scheme based on different strategies. The results show that the asset allocation scheme based on different economic stages can significantly improve the return rate of the portfolio.

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庞杰,王光伟.全国社会保障基金的风格资产配置研究——基于经济周期视角[J].南京审计大学学报,2017,(3):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2017-05-24
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