中国对外直接投资与进出口贸易关系——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的实证分析
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国家社科基金一般项目(15BJY119)


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    摘要:

    使用2003—2016年中国与55个“一带一路”沿线国家的双边贸易数据,基于扩展的贸易引力模型,从总样本和分样本层面实证分析了对外直接投资对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的进出口贸易的影响。研究结果表明:总体层面上,对外直接投资可以促进中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的进出口贸易;分样本层面上,对外直接投资在一定程度上会替代中国与东盟、印度和俄罗斯三大经济体的出口贸易,促进中国与“一带一路”其他国家的进出口贸易。在中美贸易摩擦凸显的现状下,对“一带一路”沿线国家有针对性地投资对于加快我国“走出去”步伐和落实“一带一路”倡议具有重要意义。

    Abstract:

    Using bilateral trade data between China and 55 countries along the B & R from 2003 to 2016, based on the expanded trade gravitation model, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the impact of China’s foreign direct investment on China’s import and export trade along the B & R from the total sample and the sub sample level.The results of the study indicate that on the overall level, foreign direct investment can promote China’s import and export trade with countries along the B & R;At the sample level, foreign direct investment can promote China’s import and export trade with other countries along the B & R, but, to a certain extent, it will replace the export trade between China and the three economies of ASEAN, India and Russia.Accordingly, under the current situation of increasing trade friction between China and the United States, targeted investment in countries along “The Belt and Road” is of great significance for accelerating China’s “going out” pace and implementing “The Belt and Road” initiative.

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任志成,朱文博.中国对外直接投资与进出口贸易关系——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的实证分析[J].南京审计大学学报,2018,(5):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-09-12
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