地方政府债务、银行信贷配置与制造业创新
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教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(19YJA790060)


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    摘要:

    地方政府债务的累积已经不仅仅是简单的风险问题,更是一个贯穿“财政-经济-金融”的系统性命题。基于2010—2020年A股制造业上市企业的面板数据,实证检验了地方政府债务、银行信贷配置与制造业创新三者之间的关系。结果发现:地方政府债务与制造业创新呈显著的“倒U型”关系,即在阈值内,地方债务上升能够刺激制造业创新,一旦超过阈值,则对制造业创新起到抑制作用,其中对垂直创新影响的阈值高于水平创新;银行信贷配置在地方政府债务对制造业创新的影响中具有部分中介效应。进一步分析发现,地方政府债务对制造业创新的影响关系存在区域异质性、所有制异质性,东部地区阈值较高,中部地区次之,西部地区阈值最低,且对非国有企业的挤出效应较强。因此,未来应上移地方政府债务的审批权限,并建立有效的投资效率评价机制。

    Abstract:

    The accumulation of local government debt is not only a simple risk problem, but also a systemic proposition running through “finance, economy and finance”. Based on the panel data of listed A share manufacturing companies from 2010 to 2020, we used basic regression model and intermediary effect model to empirically test the impact and mechanism of local government debt on manufacturing innovation. The results showed that: there is an “inverted U shape” relationship between local government debt and manufacturing innovation. Within the threshold, rising local government debt can spur innovation in manufacturing. Once the threshold is exceeded, it will crowd out the credit resources of the manufacturing industry and inhibit its innovation. Bank credit allocation has a partial mediating effect on the impact of local government debt on manufacturing innovation. Further analysis shows that there are regional heterogeneity and ownership heterogeneity in the impact of local government debt on manufacturing innovation. The eastern region has a higher threshold, followed by the central region, and the western region has the lowest threshold, which has a strong crowding out effect on non state owned enterprises. In the future, the authority to examine and approve local government debt should be moved up, and an effective investment efficiency evaluation mechanism should be established.

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刘喜和,叶 静,楼 倩.地方政府债务、银行信贷配置与制造业创新[J].审计与经济研究,2022,(4):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2022-07-21
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