气候物理风险与公司税负水平的动态调整
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国家自然科学基金面上项目(72372025);国家自然科学基金专项项目(72442004);国家自然科学基金重点项目(72132004)


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    摘要:

    权衡理论认为公司税负水平偏离目标时会进行动态调整。气候物理风险作为一种外部环境冲击,不仅可能因提升公司经营压力而强化其税负调整动机,促使管理层在税负调整决策中更加勤勉尽责,还可能通过加剧公司经营及税收政策的不确定性,增加税负调整的难度。为此,利用2007—2023年沪深A股上市公司为样本进行检验,结果表明:气候物理风险越高,公司向目标税负水平的调整速度越快,气候物理风险对公司税负水平的调整具有促进作用。机制检验表明,气候物理风险通过增强税负调整动机和提高税负调整决策有效性的方式提高调整速度。进一步研究发现,相比于向上调整(提高至目标值),气候物理风险对于公司向下调整税负水平(降低至目标值)的促进作用更加明显;气候物理风险对调整速度的促进作用在规模较小、代理成本较低、高科技公司以及处于气候物理风险敏感型行业的公司中更明显。研究不仅发现了公司税负水平调整速度的影响因素,而且从税务管理视角考察了气候物理风险的经济后果,对于理解气候物理风险如何影响公司行为具有启示意义。

    Abstract:

    The tradeoff theory holds that the level of tax burden will be adjusted when it deviates from the target. As an external environmental shock, climate physical risks may not only strengthen firms motivation for tax burden adjustment by raising their operating pressure and prompt management to exercise greater diligence and responsibility in making tax burden adjustment decisions, but also increase the difficulty of tax burden adjustment by exacerbating uncertainties in the firms operations and tax policies. This paper uses Shanghai and Shenzhen Ashare listed firms from 2007 to 2023 to construct the research sample. The test results show that the higher the climate physical risk, the faster the firms adjust to the target level of tax burden, indicating that the climate physical risk has a promoting effect on the adjustment of firms level of tax burden. Mechanism tests reveal that climate physical risks accelerate the adjustment speed by enhancing the motivation for tax adjustment and the effectiveness of tax adjustment decisions. Further research shows that compared with the upward adjustment (increasing to the target value), climate physical risk has a more obvious promoting effect on the downward adjustment of tax burden level (reducing to the target value). The promoting effect of climate physical risk on the adjustment speed is more pronounced in smaller firms, firms with lower agency costs, hightech firms, and firms operating in industries sensitive to climate physical risk. This study not only sheds light on the determinants of corporate tax burden adjustment speed, but also examines the economic consequences of climate physical risk from the perspective of tax management, which is conducive to understanding how climate physical risk affects corporate behavior.

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张海洋,王亮亮,张翼,吴雨晨.气候物理风险与公司税负水平的动态调整[J].审计与经济研究,2026,41(3):108-117

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-06-11
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