总体国家安全观下国际制裁对中国海外投资安全的影响
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国家社会科学基金一般项目“复杂网络下国际制裁对海外投资的冲击及中国应对研究”(24BGJ035)


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    摘要:

    海外投资安全是海外投资绩效提升的重要保障,是总体国家安全观在涉外投资领域的重要体现,是中国式现代化行稳致远的重要基础。为此在总体国家安全观下,构建中国海外投资安全指标体系并开展测度评价,探究国际制裁对中国海外投资安全影响的作用机制、经济效应与实现路径。结果表明,近些年,中国海外投资安全发展水平为先升后降,区域间差异是中国海外投资安全总体差距的主要来源;国际制裁显著抑制中国海外投资安全,这一结论经过检验和内生性问题处理后依然稳健;这一抑制作用存在异质性效应,对于高收入国家、中低收入国家、非共建“一带一路”国家更加显著;国际制裁通过制度环境突变、地缘权力重构、贸易合作受阻三个机制,抑制中国海外投资安全;随着东道国金融稳定性不断提高,国际制裁对中国海外投资安全的抑制效应不断减弱,但东道国与中国的制度距离这一调节变量则强化这一抑制效应;随着东道国政治稳定或国家治理的变化,国际制裁对中国海外投资安全的抑制作用表现出明显的门槛效应、空间溢出效应和空间门槛效应。研究的结论为维护中国海外投资发展和安全、统筹推进和加强中国海外利益保护、完善维护中国国家安全体制机制、推进国家安全体系和能力现代化提供新视角、新思路和新途径,同时为总体国家安全观下积极有效化解各类国际制裁风险和挑战,健全反制裁、反干涉、反“长臂管辖”机制,坚决维护国家主权、安全、发展利益等提供经验证据和政策启示。

    Abstract:

    The security of overseas investment is a crucial guarantee for improving its performance, an important manifestation of the overall national security concept in the field of foreign investment, and a fundamental foundation for China’s path to stable and sustainable modernization. Under the overall national security concept, this paper constructs an index system for China’s overseas investment security and conducts measurement and evaluation to explore the mechanisms, economic effects, and pathways of international sanctions on China’s overseas investment security. The results indicate that in recent years, the level of China’s overseas investment security has first risen and then declined, with regional differences being the main source of the overall gap in China’s overseas investment security; international sanctions significantly suppress China’s overseas investment security, a conclusion that remains robust after testing and addressing endogeneity issues; this inhibitory effect exhibits heterogeneity, being more pronounced for high-income countries, middle- and low-income countries, and non-Belt and Road countries. International sanctions suppress the security of China’s overseas investments through three mechanisms: abrupt changes in the institutional environment, reshaping of geopolitical power, and obstruction of trade cooperation. As host countries’ financial stability improves, the inhibitory effect of international sanctions on China’s overseas investment security weakens, but the moderating variable of institutional distance between host countries and China intensifies this effect. With changes in host countries’ political stability or state governance, international sanctions exhibit clear threshold effects, spatial spillover effects, and spatial threshold effects on the suppression of China’s overseas investment security. The paper’s conclusions provide new perspectives, ideas, and approaches for maintaining the development and security of China’s overseas investments, coordinating and strengthening the protection of China’s overseas interests, improving the institutional mechanisms for safeguarding China’s national security, and advancing the modernization of the national security system and capabilities. It also offers empirical evidence and policy insights for actively and effectively mitigating various international sanctions risks and challenges under the overall national security concept, improving anti-sanction, anti-interference, and anti-“long-arm jurisdiction” mechanisms, and resolutely safeguarding national sovereignty, security, and development interests.

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王智新,刘韩丽.总体国家安全观下国际制裁对中国海外投资安全的影响[J].审计与经济研究,2026,41(4):105-116

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-19
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