张文武.农业人口转移、投入要素替代与乡村产业振兴[J].审计与经济研究,2019,(5):
农业人口转移、投入要素替代与乡村产业振兴
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  农业人口转移  产业结构  要素替代  农业转型升级  区域异质性  人力资本回流  乡村振兴
英文关键词:rural labor force immigration  industrial structures  factor substitution  upgrading of agricultural transfer  regional heterogeneity  back-flow of human resources capital  rural vitalization
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作者单位
张文武 南京财经大学国际经贸学院江苏南京210023 
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中文摘要:
      基于乡村产业振兴视角构建理论模型,探究了农业人口转移引发要素投入变化影响乡村产业结构的机制,并采用2001—2013年中国216个地级城市的分行业数据进行实证检验。研究发现:(1)农业人口转移在短期对乡村产业升级具有明显的抑制作用,但长期的投入要素替代效应有利于提升农业专业化服务水平,优化乡村产业结构;(2)农业人口转移显著提高了农业部门的资本劳动比,促进了乡村产业结构转型升级和专业服务水平的提升,但人力资本趋于恶化,具有较大的负面影响;(3)农业人口转移导致的相对劳动成本变化对东部地区影响更大,而中西部地区乡村产业结构受人力资本的制约更为明显。加快农业转移人口市民化的同时注重人力资本回流和科技投入,促进乡村产业转型升级,对乡村振兴战略具有重要的政策涵义。
英文摘要:
      This paper constructs a theoretical model to explore the mechanism of factors input changes caused by agricultural population transfer affecting rural industrial structure,and makes an empirical test using 2001-2013 the agricultural sub-sector data from 216 cities in China.The study found that:(1)Rural labor transfer has a significant inhibitory effect on crop production,but the effect of the alternative labor of capital has a significant positive impact on agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery services;(2)The transfer of agricultural population has significantly increased the capital-labor ratio of the agricultural sector and promoted rural production.The transformation and upgrading of industrial structure and the upgrading of professional service level,but the deterioration of human capital tends to have a greater negative impact;(3)The change of relative labor costs caused by the transfer of agricultural population has a greater impact on the eastern region,and the rural industrial structure in the central and western regions is more significantly constrained by human capital.The transformation and upgrading of rural industries that pays attention to the return of human capital has important policy implications for realizing the strategy of rural rejuvenation.
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