分析师行业专长、分析师盈余预测与盈余公告的信息溢出效应
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    摘要:

    盈余公告是资本市场的重要信息来源。通过研究A股市场年报发布先后顺序所产生的信息溢出现象发现,分析师会根据先公告公司的盈余消息,修正对同行业后公告公司的盈余预测。这种现象在同时跟踪两家公司的分析师中更加显著。进一步的研究表明,分析师行业专长可以增进这一机制。行业经验更丰富的分析师预测调整幅度更大,预测准确度的提升也更明显。分析师的决策过程受规模经济的影响。分析师在同一行业内,跟踪的企业越多,搜集和处理的行业信息越多,对行业内溢出信息的利用越充分。研究结果为分析师提高预测准确性以及投资者改进决策质量提供了依据,也为监管者完善信息披露制度提供了参考。

    Abstract:

    Earnings announcements are important source of information in the capital market. This study examines the information spillovers caused by the sequence of annual report disclosure in A share market. The results show that analysts revise their earnings forecasts based on earnings released earlier by industry peers. The phenomenon is more pronounced among analysts who track both companies. Further research suggests that analysts’ industry expertise enhances this mechanism. Analysts with more industry experience revise their forecast by larger magnitude and enjoy more significant improvements in forecast accuracy. Moreover, analysts’ decision making process is influenced by the scale of economies. The more companies an analyst tracks in the industry, the more information the analyst collects and processes, and thus the more use the analyst makes from intra industry information spillovers. The findings provide insights for analysts to improve their forecasts, for investors to enhance decision making, and for regulators to perfect disclosure requirements.

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施然.分析师行业专长、分析师盈余预测与盈余公告的信息溢出效应[J].审计与经济研究,2020,(5):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2020-10-13
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