预期寿命、人口红利与居民储蓄
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国家社会科学基金项目(15BJL092)


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    摘要:

    通过分析两次人口红利与高储蓄之间的内在联系,运用引入代际因子的OLG模型进行定性判断,采用固定效应、随机效应及面板门槛模型进行实证分析,研究预期寿命、抚养比与居民储蓄率之间的关系。研究结果表明:预期寿命增加可以显著提升居民储蓄率;少儿抚养比的增加会显著降低居民储蓄率,而老年抚养比的增加可以促进居民储蓄率的提高;在不同的门槛内,少儿抚养比和老年抚养比的系数大小均发生了变化。由此得出“老龄化”与“少子化”对储蓄率的影响在经济发展水平不同的地区存在异质性的结论。

    Abstract:

    By analyzing the internal relationship between the two demographic dividends and high savings, using OLG model with intergenerational factors to make qualitative judgments, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship among life expectancy, dependency ratio and household savings rate based on fixed effect model, random effect model and panel threshold model. The result finds that the increase of life expectancy can significantly increase the household saving rate. The increase in child dependency ratio can significantly decrease the household savings rate, and the increase in elderly dependency ratio can promote the increase in household savings rate. Within different thresholds, the coefficients of child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio have changed. Therefore, it is concluded that the aging and low birth rates have heterogeneity effect on the saving rate in regions with different economic levels in China.

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王树,吕昭河.预期寿命、人口红利与居民储蓄[J].南京审计大学学报,2019,(2):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2019-03-13
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