GVC视角下双边增加值贸易的解构与测算:以中美贸易为例
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国家社会科学基金项目(16BJL089)


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    摘要:

    构建了多国模型中双边增加值贸易的解构模型,并利用2016年发布的世界投入产出表测算了2000—2014年中美56个产业部门的双边增加值贸易及总值贸易的数据,结合中美贸易失衡的扭曲程度指标的构建与测算,从总体和结构两个层面对中美增加值贸易进行了失衡分析和全球价值链地位分析,还原了中美双边贸易的真实状态。结果显示,总体上,双边总值贸易失衡比增加值贸易失衡平均每年高估了20.17%;美国出口中的回流比重呈现下降的趋势,而中国出口中的回流比重则是逐年上升;自2010年起中国出口中的国外增加值率逐渐下跌,而国内增加值率开始上升,这表明中国在全球价值链中的地位正在改善。结构上,中国对美国各行业增加值贸易以顺差为主;制造业的双边总值贸易失衡比增加值贸易失衡平均每年高估了96.30%,并且中国主要制造业部门对美国的增加值贸易出口均小于总值贸易出口,这说明中国制造业总体上仍然需要继续提升其在全球产业链中的位置;在新兴服务部门,美国相对中国处于全球价值链上游,而在建筑业和一些传统服务部门,中国相对美国处于全球价值链的上游。

    Abstract:

    In this paper we demonstrate the decomposition model of bilateral value-added trade in the world multilateral trade context and calculate the data of Sino-US bilateral value-added trade and bilateral gross trade from 2000 to 2014 in 56 sectors by using the 2016 released World Input-Output Data. Together with the building and calculation of the trade imbalance distortion index, the paper analyzes the imbalance of Sino-US bilateral trade and the status of China and US in the global value chains in both general and structural levels, therefore reflects the real situation of Sino-US trade. The results show that in the general level the imbalance in the Sino-US bilateral trade is averagely 20.17% per year over-estimated by gross trade statistical approach than by value-added trade statistical approach. Also, the proportion of added-value shipped back to its source in the American gross export is gradually getting smaller while the proportion in the Chinese gross export is getting larger. Since 2010 the foreign added value ratio in Chinese gross export has been dropping while the domestic added value ratio in Chinese gross export has been rising, which indicates the rising of China’s position in the global value chains. In the structural level, most of the Chinese industries enjoy surplus in the Sino-US bilateral value-added trade. And, the imbalance of manufacturing in the Sino-US bilateral trade is averagely 96.30% per year over-estimated by gross trade statistical approach than by value-added trade statistical approach. Besides, most of Chinese manufacturing sectors have less value-added exports to the United States than gross exports to the US, which indicates that China needs to improve its position in the global value-chain in terms of manufacturing. For some emerging services, the US has more upstream locations in the GVC than China, while for construction and some traditional services, China lies more upstream in the GVC than the US.

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戴枫,周天怡. GVC视角下双边增加值贸易的解构与测算:以中美贸易为例[J].审计与经济研究,2018,(4):

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  • 在线发布日期: 2018-07-13
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